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Sarah Palin's impending announcement could cut both ways
by Joseph Earnest August 24, 2011
Newscast Media HOUSTON, Texas -- As the September 3, date approaches for former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin to make her announcement, Mitt Romney supporters hope she announces her candidacy for U.S president, while Bachmann, Perry and Ron Paul supporters hope she doesn't.
A Palin candidacy would definitely work against Michele Bachmann who gained social proof from her association with Palin that catapulted her, making her a top tier candidate. Ron Paul is viewed by many, including Tea Party members, as an isolationist even though he is the godfather of the movement. Rick Perry attained acceptance into the Tea Party by virtue of Sarah Palin's endorsement of him during his last gubernatorial race.
For Palin to step in at this point of the game, it could work both for her and against her. Were she to run for president, she could easily win the primaries because the Tea Party, Evangelicals and conservatives would propel her into the general, since she is the biggest name on the GOP side. She would be fiercely contested by Romney though, who has a very strong ground game and deep pockets, but in the primary, she could very well prevail due to her grassroots loyalty that Romney lacks. In the general, if she were to face Obama, she would need a running-mate with strong economic credentials because the thrust of the 2012 election will be the economy and job creation.
Her announcement could also work against her like it did Fred Thompson because it would come a little too late. She does not have the infrastructure that the rest of the candidates have set up, and she would also have to raise large sums of money in a short amount of time to sustain her staff and also buy ad space, because the media will wage perhaps the biggest negative campaign against her than they have waged against any other candidate. To neutralize the media, she would have to have a huge war chest and a rapid response team to counter the misinformation about her.
It could also work against her because elections tend to be emotional, and voters who have already picked their horses are emotionally invested in those candidates. Switching to someone different would be highly unlikely for a voter who has already pledged his or her to support a particular candidate.
Palin's contractual obligations kept her from announcing earlier this summer, and it is only now that she has some wiggle room to state her intentions. A very vocal contingent of Republicans pretending to be pro-Palin are encouraging her to run, yet the truth is that they are anti-Perry and understand very well that if Palin were to run, it would put Romney ahead, because Palin/Perry/Paul/Bachmann would have to split the votes. Romney would not be affected as much and would end up pulling ahead because his voters are a totally different crowd. Remember, the media has already picked Mitt Romney and they will do everything to help him win, should Sarah Palin decide to run.
If it is Palin's wish to run for president, she should run, win or lose. However, a little birdie tells this writer that she might opt to be a kingmaker, and instead announce she is endorsing Rick Perry. We would then once again see the tag team that we witnessed here in Texas, as Palin galvanizes voters into Perry's camp. Either way, whether she announces that she is running, or decides she's gunning for her friend Rick Perry, we're in for a wild election cycle in 2012.
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